NORTH EAST VIC: 
RECENT OBSERVATIONS
UPDATED: 25th / JULY /2018

REPORT CONFIDENCE: STRONG
CURRENT UNTIL: 27th / JULY / 2018

OBSERVATION SUMMARY

TREND: IMPROVING / ONGOING / DETERIORATING

OBSERVATION:

Two seperate things happening here now.

The freeze levels we are looking at occurred at around 1850m during the most recent precipitation event. 

Below 1850m there is a rain effected crust on mush refreeze thing going on which is hideous. 

Above 1850m through to 2000 is a different story with wind loaded aspects (south through to east). We saw a very similar event earlier in the season last year (although with more accumulation) which unleashed the 'Beast of the North East', a D3 slide on Bogong at the top of 'Tombstone' gully. So the wind slab deposition is 'Upside Down' at an accumulation of around 20cm, on a bed surface of wind crust from the prevailing three days and nights of howlers has us playing a conservative moderate avalanche problem above 1850m, of the large (but not particularly deep) & possible for the next 24hrs. Look for propagation characteristics, because even shallow slides can end up deep in constricted terrain. 
 

OUTLOOK:
Once we get a freeze cycle through this tonight we will hopefully firm up the breakable crust and mush below 1850 and similarly create enough cohesion in the new accumulated leeward wind slab to bridge the slide problem there. With good weather on the way, and a top up due for the weekend, things are looking pretty chipper out there really, it's getting fat... 

Always a big thanks to everyone who is helping make this possible through our membership kickstart and through our merchandise drive. Simon@MSC

PRIMARY HAZARD
ABOVE 1850m (See Summary above)

PRIMARY HAZARD

PRIMARY HAZARD
(forecast till 23rd July 2018)

Take care out there and go with a buddy!

Weather Models

Snowpack Assessments

The schedule for stability assessment reports will be  Mondays.  Locations are on or above tree-line and generally South East aspect, although this is conditions dependent.