MSC’s Daily Process: What goes into the Daily Backcountry Reports? by Craig Sheppard

Forecasting backcountry conditions is an iterative process.  From our first report to our last report, MSC follows a daily process.  If you have taken an Avalanche Skills Training Course, this may sound familiar.  You would have likely been taught to follow a daily process of your own as a recreationalist.  This isn’t coincidental.  A daily process is very important and is in fact followed (or should be) by all professional organisations in this field. The MSC daily process can be broken into three chunks:  the morning workflow (AM Form), Field Observations, and Field Report summaries (PM Form). 

The Morning Workflow (AM Form)

The day starts bright and early and picks up from the afternoon before (see Field Report Summaries below).  Each morning, broadly speaking and without going into the finer details, the AM Form looks at what the conditions were from the day before, what the weather did overnight, how have the conditions changed, and what is the weather forecast for the day ahead?  At the end of the Morning Workflow, once the AM Form is complete, the forecaster has determined the hazards for the day and publishes the public report.  

Field Observations

Field observations are such an important part of the process.  These validate or refute the morning forecast.  Backcountry condition forecasts rely heavily on weather forecasts.  As such, it is possible that conditions are different than what was forecast.  For example, freezing levels may be higher than forecasted, or snow amounts may differ from the weather forecast. Furthermore, there may be gaps in the information that the forecaster has.  The MSC Field Team will head into the field with clear objectives to lessen the forecaster’s uncertainties.  These daily field observations help keep the finger on the pulse of the actual conditions and the specific details of any layers of concern. 

An important side note: although MSC has practitioners that conduct field observations, we also rely on Commercial Operators in the various regions to input their field observations as well.  We are always grateful for their input.  The more information, the clearer the picture.  But those are not the only places we can get our field information.  Did you know there is a place for you to input your information too?  Check it out here and next time you are out, send us your field trip observations.  You too can help the community! 

Field Report Summaries (PM Form)

In the afternoon, it’s back to the computer to complete the daily process and the PM Form.  This form collates the information from the field from the MSC Observers, the Commercial Operators and YOU the members.  By the end of the form, we have a nowcast and importantly, a place to continue the iterative process in the morning when it all starts over again. 

MSC National Observations Database

From our daily duties, there is one other document that is a happy consequence of following the daily process we do:  the MSC National Observations Database.  Essentially, this is where all the weather observations, snowpack observations and avalanche observations are kept, in chronological order, for the season. This database gives us a seasonal record and is very useful to look back and recall the different storm and avalanche cycles of the season.  Moreover, it is a tool that helps identify trends and patterns so that when conditions are similar in the future, we have a clearer understanding of how things will react and what the hazards will be. 

Hopefully this article has given you insight into how it all comes together to provide you with the most accurate Backcountry Conditions Forecasts possible.  We look forward to living and breathing the Daily Process again next year…. Hopefully without the Covid! 

Safe spring everyone.