Date: 8/6/2021
prepared by: Simon Murray

Regional Outlook:
Winter has arrived and we are in for a wild couple of days here in the North East of Victoria. The temperature and precipitation (rain or snow) is very ‘iffy’ to use a non technical term. Time will tell. Today looks pretty tough with fresh low density snow without a base. The snowpack won’t have reached a skiable cover in the backcountry. That said theres evidence of plenty of punters having a go on the resort terrain where the snow making is providing a cover. Take care ‘in bounds’ as the teams are frantically setting up, unsure as we all are as to eventuality of Covid-19 travel restrictions being eased.

Danger Rating

Terrain and travel advice
Hold your charge and let the base develop. Enjoy a blizzard stroll close to shelter and stay tuned.

Daily Discussion
Starting off the discussion for the season, this system is unusual (although so many are). It is a ‘cut-off’ cold pool that is bringing cold temperatures not only to the usual alpine regions but well north into northern NSW. Then it is modelled to spiral back down. Thursday morning the system intensifies off the Gippsland coast. The bureau has it tipped as snow so let’s hope.

The distribution of this new snow will have a strong south easterly influence as the day progresses creating an unusual deposition pattern with lee aspects to the north and west. If the storm does deliver the upper end of the numbers forecast (50mm Wednesday and 30mm Thursday) then wind slab avalanches will begin to form on the north and west aspects, or perhaps being with the snow being so light and dry it could all be stripped away with wind speeds of 60+ kph tonight and tomorrow morning. The warmest time of the day will be +1˚ at 10pm.

Confidence: LOW
Due to uncharacteristic / unfamiliar weather pattern.