Date: 28/06/2021
prepared by: Simon Murray

Regional Outlook:
Total cover is around 40-50cm at 1750m and there’s a relatively supportive base, or not, if it was smashed by rain with 1850m as the magic number where above it improves. Falling through bushes and lurking rocks just beneath the surface make the shallow cover warning still current. The wind is moderating, from the NW with aspects S and E displaying drifting and cornice development. There is a strong possibility that isolated wind slab avalanche conditions are developing on that SE quadrant at higher elevations like Bogong - Cairn Gully and Feathertop SE face and places that share these characteristics.

Danger Rating

Terrain and travel advice
Safe travel in the backcountry is still constricted to established trails and isolated ‘snow patch’ areas. Strong wind and poor visibility combined with 20cm of fresh dry snow will make it tough going out there. Conservative distance estimates are prudent for now. We are concerned about wind slab development on south and east aspects at high elevations.

Daily Discussion
The avalanche danger reported here is entirely anecdotal, based on a cycle of human triggered avalanches that developed under the same early season conditions at high elevations in 2017 that caught many people by surprise.

In the alpine (above 1900m) the storm snow from the last 48hrs has been transported by moderate to high northwesterly winds and deposited on southeasterly slopes. Estimated windslab depths of +50cm is enough for a decent sized avalanche. While the wet bed surface from the prefrontal storms should have bonded well, the freezing level was approximately 1900m and as such at upper elevations, a poor bond may exist between the new and old snow. With todays warming this windslab may become reactive. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.

Confidence: Moderate

Hazards

Primary Hazard:
Wind slab

As stated above the windslab avalanche hazard is associated with a high alpine South East aspects with the layer of concern being either the bed surface or mid storm layers.